JUDAH MINTZ SCOUTING REPORT
Is he really a different prospect than last year ?
When it comes to returners, it's always hard to evaluate them. Sometimes it's because they don't meet their expectations or they want to prove scouts wrong about them.
Judah Mintz was a 4 star prospect when he committed to Syracuse. The Oak Hill Academy student chose Syracuse between offers from teams like Wake Forest, NC State or DePaul. Judah decided to commit to Syracuse when he saw them in the ACC Tournament.
“ The stage, even though they were missing Buddy that game, how competitive they were. Even though they were missing their best player, it just showed me how competitive coach Boeheim was and the will to win ".
Judah Mintz was 36th on ESPN database so there were big expectations on the Fort Washington native.
So the big question is : Why did Judah Mintz came back to Syracuse ?
FIRST SEASON
At his first season Judah Mintz played for ‘Cuse under Jim Boheim coaching. He started coaching in the 1976-1977 season and he was a historical coach.
Boheim is known for high usage of 2-3 zone defense.
This system brought him a national championship in 2003 and reached four other Final Fours during his 47 year run as Head Coach at Syracuse. Zone defense: every player has an area (zone) to cover. This system works well to slow down offense and force bad shots
In his first year, Judah started all 32 Games he played. Boheim counted on him, playing him about 33 minutes per game, a lot for a freshman.
What is easy to evaluate on a prospect, it's his playing time, and Judah did play a lot in 2023.
Let's take a look at Judah stats in freshman year. Judah was averaging 16 points, 4.6 assists and 2.3 rebounds per Game, not bad for a freshman you would say !
The main weakness for Judah Mintz was his shooting.
Judah was shooting 30% from deep on 2.1 Attempts per Game.
A player who measured 6 '3 and can't shoot is a bit problematic to be drafted in the NBA.
The other reason is his position on the court. Is Judah a point guard ? A shooting guard ?
It's hard to evaluate a player who can't fit a clear role in the National Basketball Association.
Even with 4.6 assists at a high usage, 27.5 % per Barttorvik, Judah isn’t a playmaker. Most of his assists come from drives.
27% of Judah Team Possessions starting with a Pick and Roll, per synergy.
The guard from Syracuse had an high AST/TO ratio at 1.87, the highest on the starting five. His passing game relies on his instinct, so it often happens that he attempts risky passes. Judah play a lot with his quickness and sometimes he need to slow down to take advantage of his physical tools.
Judah Mintz has one the worst defensive rating for all the guards in the ACC (67th worst in all the Division 1). The main reason is that Mintz doesn’t have the tools to stay in front of his opponents despite his quickness, so he mainly gambles and jumps into the passing lane to disrupt the offense and push in transition. He is not a bad defender but he has struggle to navigate around screens. At time he has good hands with a lot aggressivity but for now its not on regularly time.
Despite all this, Judah is a great finisher at the rim, his body control is impressive.
On some layups, Mintz reminds me of Ja Morant, in terms of creativity and spontaneity.
With 4.5 Assists per Game, he is a willing passer but he is more comfortable at exploiting space in transition.
Judah has explosive quickness and blows-by speed to get easily to the rim. He also knows how to play with angles and changing gears to get to his spots. His abilities to get to the paint can open up the floor as the defense collapses on him.
He can twist his body to avoid contact and have a variety of finishes. What makes him really good as a slasher is his creativity but also the fact that he embraces the contact well against bigger defenders.
Even not being a real playmaker and 3 level scorer like he was in Oak Hill with Chris Livingston, Judah did prove he is one the most electric scorers and one of the best guard of the dribble in College Basketball.
SECOND (and last ?) SEASON
With JJ starling transferring to Syracuse, there were plenty of hopes on his backcourt association with Judah Mintz.
JJ Starling was a 5 star recruit who committed to Notre Dame in the 2023 season.
JJ Starling had a disappoint year with ND and chose Syracuse to have an other context pairing with Judah Mintz.
With a new coach under Syracuse, Adrian Autry, the Orange is currently 4-2 on the season.
Judah Mintz is the leading scorer with 18 points, 4.2 Assist and 2.7 rebounds
The main takeaway from Syracuse offense is the ball movement compared to last year. Judah Mintz is more an initiator but he can play off the ball when JJ is the main ball handler. Pairing JJ and Judah is a risk but they can off and on the ball with variety of plays.
40% of the Team Assist came from JJ Starling or Judah Mintz.
Both have +20% USG and Syracuse fought well against better teams like Tennessee or Gonzaga.
And in defense, Syracuse is playing less zone defense and more traditional patterns like drop, switch and man on man. The Orange has currently an 96 Def Rating, better than the last 7 seasons.
So what can we take away from Judah Mintz in the first games of the season ?
Firstly, let's take a look at Judah Mintz in Barttorvik.
The Box Plus Minus has taken high leap going to 1.5 from 8.4 (12th best in the ACC and 122 in the Division 1).
Even if the stats don’t speak that much in this area, he is getting better at provinding rim pressure (FTR up to 63)
Here are all the players who are scoring PG, with a Box +/- over 8, O-Rating over 105, an Usage over 30, and a FRT over 50. These names are known from the NCAA / NBA circuit.
His game has evolved a bit, with more spot-up and more PnR and less transition offense.
He is still not a playmaker but more of a situational playmaker. A Situational playmaker can find teammates when the defense collapses but he is not creating offense from nothing. He has to draw attention to pass the ball.
His two man game with McLeod has matured and even now he has shown flashes of manipulation and crafty plays in half court offense.
If Judah has understood that he can be an electric slasher but also a good PnR guard not only reliable on his quickness, his game will be less predictable. He usually plays at one speed and Syracuse needs him to maintain a good tempo. Basketball is a game with a lot of momentum and you can’t play at full speed every time.
Also he has taken more shots off the dribble, with some nice shotmaking (especially on 3’s) 3.3 3PA this season, and it was 2 3PA last year.
I would like to see him use his floater more, he is too often at full speed when he’s at the rim and some variety of shots could benefit his slashing game.
These kinds of crafty plays / finishes can get his slashing game to a whole different level.
With more shotmaking and the ability to punish defense if they go under the screens, Judah’s offense can be more complete and free him more space on the floor.
Judah has returned with Syracuse, to show that he is better at running offense and his overall offense game is more polished. He is still very good in transition and open floor, so it's easy to project in the NBA where there is more space on the court.
The main concern was his shot last year and now he is starting to prove he can develop an outside shot. And to see further, to be a 3 level scorer.
The backcourt with JJ Starling is very interesting and working well for now but will it be a selfish race to be drafted the highest ?
This article has been written by Jaspaire (Some stats may be wrong as the article was written on 11/27/23)
