THE PRE DRAFTING CONCEPT
Is pre-drafting hard?
First of all, before looking at the question. We need to define what the principle of pre-draft is. Then we need to know how this selection system works. And then, what are the reasons why the pre-draft is more or less hard, in addition to often being a high risk to take.
The pre-draft is a fairly loose term in basketball, but it's often over-used. In a nutshell, pre-draft means picking a raw player in whom you see long-term talent. But it's more complicated than that, as you're often going to pick a young player with a fairly raw game in which you see hidden potential. Pre-drafting also means picking a player in the middle of the first round, for example, to avoid seeing him lottery. PD Web says the following about pre-drafting: "'pre-drafting,' an NBA draft strategy that would allow potential lottery/first-round talents to be acquired in a later draft slot, not known historically for producing successful outcomes."
In his article PD Web uses the case of Bouknight to explain his opinion, in essence asking the question :
"Is Bouknight a foundationally better player than he was one year ago? He has improved but he is not a different archetype of prospect".
I also talk about this in my article on Judah Mintz, with a simple question: has he become a better player ? Has he managed to improve on his weaknesses ?It also raises another issue: do you improve in the NBA/G League context or is it better to stay in the NCAA ? Every year, quite a few players enter the NBA incubator process (Josh Primo / Peyton Watson / Jonathan Kuminga / Patrick Williams, Bilal Coulibaly). These players are not necessarily chosen for their basketball ability. NBA franchises see an extremely interesting physical profile, often with intriguing measurements for a young player. What you need to understand is that when you pre-draft, you're betting big to get high risk-high reward. The evaluation is therefore extremely important in order to project yourself with the player you've drafted, because it's important to remember that not every player you draft is going to become an NBA player.
In Ahmed Jama's article on Jojo Tugler, he talks about pre-drafting a raw player with very interesting physical measurements and intriguing flashes because he has a lot of advantages in the modern NBA :
“Pre-drafting, simply put, is the idea of teams drafting players a year (or two) before they are seen as capable of regularly contributing to an NBA team. Conventional wisdom of the draft has often been reduced to, “there are only around 15-20 players worth taking every year.” And while there are definitely years more scant in talent than others, I believe this circular reasoning persisted because teams have improperly framed the question of what constitutes a NBA caliber prospect “.
JOSH PRIMO
The case of Josh Primo is a good example, as the player was surprisingly selected by the Spurs in 2021 with the 12th pick in the draft. At the time, he was one of the youngest players in the draft and the whole scouting world thought he was going to turn up in 2021 just to see his hype and then retire to be a lottery pick in 2022.
The Spurs saw OKC eyeing the player, jumped at the chance to take him in 12 and then began a pre-draft process with the Canadian guard from Alabama.
After shocking the scouting world and the NBA front office, the Spurs had to prove they had made the right choice. But how do you do that when there is so much left to develop in one player and other players taken below him are immediately producing more (Chris Duarte taken 13th by Indiana, who shot 13pts per game in his rookie season).
To avoid burning his wings too quickly, they sent him to Austin (San Antonio Spurs' G-League affiliate) to try his hand and develop his physique. Despite his young age, the Canadian showed undeniable talent in his G League games, averaging 17pts while playing mainly as a main ball carrier, whereas at Alabama he was confined to a 3&D role. The Spurs have invested heavily in his development, making him the Austin team's playmaker and giving him minutes in San Antonio too, despite Gregg Popovich's past reluctance to play unproven young players.
Who is the pressure on? The Spurs have to prove at all costs that their scouting department is still the one that scouted Ginobili with the 58th pick, the one that took Tony Parker with one of the last picks of the first round, the one that found one of the most dominant players of his generation in Kawhi Leonard in the middle of the first round. But can Josh Primo really develop quietly? Can he concentrate on getting to grips with the NBA world, or must he find a way to dominate or make a difference straight away? These questions will remain unanswered.
The Joshua Primo project lasted just one season, and then exploded in mid-air. At the start of the 2022-2023 season, the player was accused of indecently exposing himself to several women, prompting the Spurs to cut him immediately. The NBA world was in shock, with a (high) first-round draft pick immediately cut. And Joshua Primo took to the internet to say that he would be able to "concentrate on his mental health". So there's a psychological justification for his outburst, which in no way justifies what he's been accused of, but it does raise the question of "how do you deal with pressure at such a young age when you're still in the development phase ?" Here too is the problem with the pre-draft with Primo and others. How do you give a player the time to develop when you know he can't meet the monster expectations right now ? The only hope was for a development miracle. Which didn't happen. Josh Primo's extra-sporting situation is a good parallel to the fact that he wasn't ready physically, he certainly wasn't ready in his head either and the Spurs FO missed out on that, drafted a player who had problems and missed out all round.
JONATHAN KUMINGA
Jonathan Kuminga was part of the first G League experiment with Jalen Green and Isiah Todd. He was selected in 7 by the Golden State Warriors, playing just 13 games.
The Congo native arrived in the American Dream at the age of 14 to play basketball. After being reclassified in the 2021 squad, he decided to join the G League Ignite program (even though he had many offers from prestigious universities), in order to gain experience in the NBA sub-league for the first time. What makes Kuminga such an interesting prospect is his athletic profile, which is quite unique for his young age.
His measurements are intriguing: 2.03m with a 2.11m wingspan and weighing 95kg. The Congolese winger already has an nba-ready body when you watch him in the G League against professional opposition.
In addition to his interesting physical attributes, the player has a dazzling first step with broad shoulders, allowing him to contain and initiate contact against former professionals despite being just 18 years old. So it's quite exciting to see young prospects playing against players who are already 'built', or players who are struggling to find NBA minutes.
That's also what's interesting about the G League, the fact that you can be professionally coached but also play against former NBA players as well as players who switch between NBA and G League minutes.
Here are Kuminga's G League stats for his season. As you can see, on the basketball side, his shooting was still in the building phase. However, with a free-throw rate of 62% (out of 48 attempts), there was a glimmer of hope in his shooting despite his poor mechanics.
His handle was also very poor, with 2.6 turnovers per game. Most of his drives were head-down, and he lacked a wide variety of dribbles and tunnel vision. As a result, he had few qualities from a basketball point of view and a low basketball IQ, especially defensively, where he was too often caught backdoor. Just over 2 personal fouls per game, the highest total of the entire starting five.
Golden State saw a young 18-year-old winger dominate physically (don't forget that he has reclassified) in the G League.
Despite a few red flags, particularly on the shoot (25% on his jumpshots). It's easy to see his physical qualities just by reading some of his stats: 51% success rate in transition and 42% post-up, 50% on cuts. The Congolese's profile was too valuable to pass up in the draft. Unfortunately, his role in the San Francisco franchise is still rather unclear and his name is often mentioned in trade rumours. Golden State chose to take a raw player for his physical qualities, while the team is playing for the title with a player of Chief Curry's stature. That's why, in his first season, Kuminga went back to the G League to continue polishing his game. He was able to refine his game with the Santa Cruz Warriors, where he led the team in the majority of stats while taking on all the responsibilities on the pitch. In the pre-draft process, it is often the case that NBA teams give a lot of minutes and responsibility to raw players.
The G League gives you maximum responsibility with minimum exposure and expectations. It should also be remembered that the player is 21 years old and entering his 3rd NBA season. The term high risk-high reward still works for Golden State, as the player has time to develop and polish his game
PD Web ; “ The front office should do everything possible to get that player now. Even if the player doesn’t produce immediately, the team will have spent a year developing a prospect with NBA resources in an NBA system under NBA rules, resulting in potentially higher development pathway and value outstripping the proposition the player would have had by returning to college “.
SHAEDON SHARPE
The case of Shaedon Sharpe in the 2022 draft offers an intriguing and rare angle on the world of professional basketball. Selected with the seventh pick by the Portland Trail Blazers, his trajectory has taken him off the beaten track. A product of the University of Kentucky Wildcats, Sharpe has never set foot on the floor in the name of that team. This has cast a veil of mystery over his candidacy, raising questions about his evaluation and sparking debate among NBA observers and scouts/
Sharpe's decision to enter the draft after a year without official competition has added to this aura of mystery. In a statement at a pre-draft press conference, Sharpe himself acknowledged this intriguing aspect of his situation:
"I feel like there is mystery just because I haven't played for about a year now. Last game was high school, so I feel like there is curiosity and mystery with me," Sharpe said during a pre-draft news conference on Friday. "But like I said before, [I'm] just in the gym, getting ready
The evaluation of Sharpe by NBA teams has proved complex. Relying primarily on his high school performances to judge his professional potential is a challenge, given that the level of competition is not comparable to that of the NCAA. What's more, most scouts hadn't had a chance to see him play for a full year, which added an extra degree of uncertainty to his assessment.
Sharpe's case is not unique in NBA history. Players such as Moses Malone, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James and Tracy McGrady were drafted without playing a single minute of NCAA basketball, illustrating that this atypical path can lead to exceptional careers in professional basketball.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding his selection, Shaedon Sharpe is the perfect embodiment of the 'High Risk-High Reward' concept. His selection by the Blazers, when the team was still centred around Damian Lillard, sparked debate about the franchise's long-term strategy.
Although the player now appears to be an undisputed starter for the Blazers, even at the time of his draft, his selection was the subject of debate. That said, Shaedon Sharpe isn't the only player to be drafted without NCAA minutes. Here are a few examples: Moses Malone, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, Tracy McGrady - in short, some fairly well-known names on the NBA circuit.
The case of the Canadian guard is the perfect example of High Risk-High Reward, especially as at the time of his draft the Blazers' plan was still built around Damian Lillard.
This particular case highlights the intriguing and sometimes daring nature of the NBA draft process. The mystery surrounding Sharpe, his controversial selection, and the possibility of success after a year without official competition fuel discussion and add a layer of fascination to an event already fraught with anticipation and excitement for basketball fans.
BILAL COULIBALY
Bilal was recently surprisingly drafted by the Wizards in the 2023 edition. At the start of 2022, almost nobody had Bilal on their board. Indeed, even we at Symbiose knew Bilal from his time with the French national team, but he wasn't the most interesting player on the Metropolitans' roster. What's more, he wasn't even playing professionally. While the pre-draft process worked in Bilal's favour when he was selected, the guard born in Hauts-de-Seine benefited from a special context. At the time, a certain Victor Wembanyama was catching the eye of the scouts. On 14 January 2023, while playing almost exclusively with the Espoirs, Bilal had a monster game with 34 points / 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to make an impact. Four days later, he scored 37 points with a frightening dominance on the court. The player is simply too good for his level and it's really from February onwards that he's going to be part of Vincent Collet's rotation.
Bilal was able to take advantage of the context around Wembanyama and his exposure, as well as Vincent Collet's staff (coach of the French team since 2009). The luck factor inevitably comes into the equation with Bilal, but you have to make it happen (luck).
On 10 February 2023, he improved his records for points scored and evaluation during the French Championship. In a victory over Dijon, he scored 14 points (6/6 on target, including 2/2 3-pointers), grabbed 7 rebounds, dished out 2 assists and intercepted a ball (for 23 points) in 34 minutes. From then on, he became a key member of Victor's team, which lost out to Monaco for the Betclic Elite title.
Bilal's arrival in the NBA is a question of context and opportunity, but not only that. Until April and his entry in the draft, Coulibaly was being talked about as a top 5 prospect in 2025.Bilal's maturity, both physically and on the court, was astonishing. Rarely has such a young player made such an impact in a team playing in the top flight.
To show such a positive attitude as a 2004 must have caught the eye of the scouts (who came from the base to see Wemby). The pre-draft equation: young age + interesting flashes + professional context make Bilal one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. In October 2023, at the age of 19 years, 3 months and 96 days, Bilal Coulibaly became the youngest player in the history of the Wizards to become a starter.
The Wizards, who had just transferred Bradley Beal to the Suns, implicitly gave Bilal room and time to develop with the Wizards. The Wizards chose a player who had proved himself at professional level at a young age and who was predicted to be a top 5 player in 2025, taking him 1 year earlier.
T0 SUM UP
The pre-draft process in the NBA is a crucial stage where teams meticulously evaluate emerging talent. This complex phase is not just a matter of luck, but relies on a multitude of intrinsic and external factors.
Firstly, the evaluation of players is not limited solely to their raw performance on the pitch. The physical and athletic aspect is closely scrutinised. Recruiters not only look at players' immediate athletic ability, but also consider their potential for long-term physical growth and development. This involves a detailed analysis of biometric data, physical performance statistics and physical resilience indicators to predict their ability to develop at professional level. As well as the physical aspects, the psychological aspect plays a major role in the pre-draft process. Young athletes are suddenly faced with high expectations and considerable pressure. NBA teams surround themselves with sports psychologists to help these players manage this stress and adapt to this new context. It is essential to understand how these young talents manage this transition, how they absorb the pressure of expectations that are often disproportionate for their age, and how they adapt to a demanding professional environment.
The professional side of the pre-draft process is also crucial. Teams work closely with coaches to develop players' skills. Examples such as Peyton Watson illustrate this dynamic perfectly. Although he had modest statistics during his time in the G League, his development with this team was carefully orchestrated to align with the Denver Nuggets' vision. This focus on long-term professional development rather than immediate statistics is an essential aspect of the pre-draft process.
What's more, each player in the running for the draft operates in a specific context. Each NBA franchise has its own objectives and its own short- and long-term strategy. As a result, one team's expectations and needs of a player may differ considerably from another. It is therefore necessary to adapt a player's development to the specific needs of each franchise, which can sometimes mean making concessions in order to maximise the player's potential in relation to the team's expectations.
Rafael Barlowe: "The NBA is all about fit and opportunity. Doesn't matter how high you go in the draft if it's not the right fit."
It's crucial to remember that behind every prospect is a human being. These young athletes, often barely of age, face immense pressures. Their development not only as players, but also as individuals, must be taken into consideration. Psychological, emotional and social support is just as important as their athletic and professional development.
In short, the pre-draft process in the NBA is a skilful blend of technical evaluation, psychological support and professional development. It is a complex exercise where luck certainly plays a part, but where every decision is underpinned by in-depth analysis and a holistic understanding of the players as athletes and individuals.
Links :
https://www.prospectiveinsight.com/post/pre-drafting (PD WEB on pre drafting)
https://theswishtheory.com/2024-nba-draft-articles/2023/10/jojo-tugler-the-case-for-pre-drafting-the-modern-pf/#:~:text=Pre%2Ddrafting%2C%20simply%20put%2C,contributing%20to%20an%20NBA%20team. (Ahmed on Jojo Tugler)
https://open.substack.com/pub/undraftedpod/p/judah-mintz-scouting-report?r=2ycswa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web (Jaspaire on Judah Mintz)
https://bvmsports.com/2023/10/27/alabama-basketball-nate-oats-knack-for-recruiting-and-developing-talent-sets-the-team-up-for-sec-title-contention/ (Alabama’s recrutement)
https://www.functionalmovement.com/articles/733/nba_pre-draft_assessments_and_the_fms (NBA Pre-Draft Assessments and the FMS)
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34904011/sources-joshua-primo-allegedly-exposed-women (Josh primo)
