WHAT'S WRONG WITH NOLAN TRAORE ?
article by Jaspaire
At the end of last season, Nolan Traore exploded on the international scene with the ANGT and then at St Quentin in the end of the season. He was in the conversation for a top 3 in the 2025 draft and today we can see him at the end of the lottery on some boards.
What happened ?
Is there an anomaly with Nolan Traore and even more globally with French prospects ?
Killian Hayes, Frank Ntilikina, and Théo Maledon... Is there a problem with the French guards ?
KILLIAN HAYES
Let's start with Killian Hayes, the Florida-born Franco-American prospect whose career has been rather eventful.
Drafted in 2020 by the Pistons in 7th position, the French point guard was at the time the highest-drafted French player in history. That's a lot of pressure for a player who is (only) 23 years old today, and who follows in the footsteps of the many French point guards who have been compared to the new Tony Parker.
Formed at Cholet Basket, a club extremely well known for its academy and youth training, like many French prospects (Salaun, Gobert...) Killian Hayes followed an almost perfect path to the NBA.
Even more the October 21, 2017, at the age of 16 years, he played his first two minutes in Pro A against Nanterre 92. On January 26, 2018, he was invited to participate in the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp in Los Angeles. On June 23, 2018, despite being courted by major European clubs, he decided to stay with Cholet Basket and sign a three-year contract.
In 2019, he decided to join the German club Ratiopharm Ulm. Why Ulm ?
The German club combines responsibility with training for its youngest members.
The club remains competitive while giving responsibility to the youngsters, an arrangement that still works today, as many French prospects try their luck in Germany (Pacome Dadiet and Noa Essengue in particular).
In addition to all this, Ulm's infrastructure is close to the NBA, and for a young player to have access to it so early is a real advantage.
Hayes arrives in a rebuilding Pistons team looking for an identity. A perfect structure to develop a player !!
But he arrives in a rather unbalanced squad with 6 point guards already in competition (Delon Wright, D Rose, Dennis Smith JR...).
Despite his 25 minutes of playing time, Hayes' stats were poor, especially on the shoot with a poor 38% shooting rate and 27% 3-point percentage.
Dwayne Casey will never find the recipe to make the French guard play. Useless without the ball, and of little use with it.
With Cade, too, there was some optimism of a combo guard duo complementing each other on defense and offense.
But it was only on paper, we mostly saw two players who were stepping on each other in attack and who were effective when they weren't paired up.
While Hayes' qualities on defense and in the passing game are undeniable, his shooting has always been a work in progress, and that's the biggest problem for a player who needs the ball so badly.
Defenses no longer respect him, and he finds less and less space for his team-mates, given that opponents leave him as much room as possible.
After Sekou's failure, Pistons fans will remain bitter about Hayes' stint.
Of all those recently drafted, Killian Hayes has had the easiest road to the NBA.
A spectacular left-handed guard for whom it seems pretty obvious that the NBA transition will go smoothly... and yet...
Today, he plays in the Brooklyn Nets G-League, a roller-coaster career that remains a leitmotif among French guards.
FRANK NTILIKINA
Partizan Belgrade's recent guard, or French Prince, also had a disappointing NBA career compared to expectations at the time of his draft.
He was selected by the Knicks in 2017, at 8th position.
He trained at SIG Strasbourg, another French club renowned for its training, and he never left the club until he was drafted.
Much less flashy and spectacular than Hayes, Ntilikina arrives with a fairly substantial resume. Above all, he is the leader and a dominant player with the national team. In December 2016 he was MVP of the U18 competition. The typical team of this competition includes Isiah Hartenstein, who played for Germany.
His coach at Strasbourg, Vincent Collet, a rather well-known name in France, refuted comparisons with Tony Parker at the time.
Until recently, Ntilikina had always been more successful in selection than in the NBA.
He certainly arrived at the Knicks in a special context, with Lebron James even saying at one point that the Knicks should have drafted Dennis Smith Jr.
On the court, we see a player who fights especially on defense, where his good wingspan serves him well and his European training enables him to hold his own against NBA players, but the problem is in his offense. Too timid, very unaggressive, and questionable shot selection, resulting in a non-renewed contract in 2021. He will try to bounce back via the Dallas Mavericks, then the Hornets, and finally a return to Europe with Partizan Belgrade.
THEO MALEDON
The situation is rather different for Maledon, drafted in 2020 he was selected 34th by the 76ers and then traded to the Thunder as part of the trade sending Danny Green and Terrance Ferguson to Philadelphia.
Maledon has almost the same characteristics as the other two French guards.
Efficient in defense, an interesting long body, but a player who tends to “play” for the team.
His lack of verticality and the little rim pressure he brings was already a red flag at the time.
Even though he dominated at youth level, he wasn't as convincing as the others at professional level.
On December 9 2020, he finally signed a four-year, $7.9 million contract with the Thunder.
Some pretty good passages with an aggressiveness that Hayes and Frank certainly never had, but he never really had the opportunity to cement himself in a squad.
A lack of consistency that would prove to be his undoing over his 3 years in the NBA. No season above 33% from 3-point range during his time in the big league. Maledon was the easiest of the two guards France provided in the draft to play off-ball. But his physical profile was too freaky for the defense, his shooting lacked confirmation and his passing game was interesting at best.
A fairly short stay, but a return is not impossible, since he's a big hit in Europe with ASVEL.
We're seeing a leader again, a player who seems to have gained experience and, above all, confidence.
The question of confidence is extremely important, especially for young guards. We often underestimate the changes involved in moving away from our families to the USA, and having to adapt very quickly (Maledon had 4 seasons to do this). The human impact is still too underestimated and too important for these young players.
The example of Dante Exum speaks for itself in this case: a return to the NBA is always possible.
Since then, a stint with the Hornets before being cut and deciding to return to Europe with Asvel since August 2024.
NOLAN TRAORE
Thus three guards have similar profiles: they all initially trained in France, in a European style of basketball that favors defense and competitiveness from an early age.
If they've been selected so highly, it's mainly because they were competent and effective at a young age in leagues that didn't favor (or didn't favor as much) the integration of youngsters into the professional roster. Hayes perhaps had the most translatable game for the NBA, with a good touch and good reading of axial PnR + good handle/speed with the ball.
But what about Nolan Traore ?
At the end of March 2024, he signed his first professional contract with Saint-Quentin, in the French First Division, as a medical freelancer until the end of the season. At 17, Traoré scored 25 points and provided 5 assists against Élan Chalon in Betclic Élite. He was being courted by college teams in the United States and Australia and signed a two-year extension with Saint-Quentin.
From his early days in the LNB, we've seen a player with a more than decent handle, allowing him to have the ball a lot and to be the main creator (from the very first games) for Saint-Quentin.
He'll play 7 games in the 2023-2024 season, but that's enough to get the hype going.
A fluidity with the ball allows him to change rhythms while combining with a big burst, enabling him to attack the paint at will and find mismatches.
Clutch shots and big games against Asvel will help him make a name for himself. Even if he arrives as a scoring-first guard, Nolan shows a superb ability to find his teammates on the court.
But if we dive a little deeper into the stats, over the 7 games he played, Nolan shot 36% (25% 3-pointers for 2.9 attempts per game) and a ratio of 5.4 AST for 3 TO per game.
A low 60% free-throw percentage shows that shooting is still an area for improvement for the then-17-year-old point guard.
We also see a player who is rather ineffective when he doesn't have the ball and too ineffective when he has to play on the wings.
This forces St Quentin to pass him the ball a lot and, above all, to make him play on axial PnRs to exploit his burst to the rim and his ability to create mismatches.
But outside this area, Traore is still struggling to create his own shots, and he still seems hesitant in his decision-making from the midrange to the 3-point line. (31% on his 41 OTD jumpers over his 7 games with Saint-Quentin)
Original tweet from TrellInterlude
The French prospect will buzz and we already see him on the doorstep of the top5 in the 2025 draft and some are already talking about him as Tony Parker's successor who could challenge Cooper Flagg for the top spot in the 2025 draft. It’s quite logical when you see the recent selections of Coulibaly, Salaun, Risacher who were taken for their ability to impact the professional level when they were not (or barely) of age.
Except for Tony Parker’s legacy, many players have been ruined by comparisons made too early and with players who aren't very similar.
Nolan Traore is taller than TP, and there are similarities in speed with the ball, but that's about it.
France has always produced good NBA wingers, but the transition from guard in Europe to guard in the NBA has always been complicated.
French training relies heavily on physical development and defensive intensity, and less on game intelligence than in Spain, for example.
What's more, it may seem obvious, but the game in Europe and the USA is different, and I think this is even more true for point guards.
The example of Teodosic or Micic is quite blatant on this point: Leaders don't have the same role or responsibility whether on the American or European continent.
Following the buzz generated at the Hoop Summit, we anticipate Nolan Traore to be prominent in the French selection for the Euro u18 tournament in St. Quentin, alongside notable players such as Jakucionis or Ben Saraf.
14 points on average, 9.3 ast and 3.6 rebounds by games is rather convincing stats. Especially in the passing game where he seems much more comfortable with his playmaking. He still has trouble on half court and in my opinion, it is that he relies too much when on transition offense or chaotic situations. He excels at finding solutions to the chaos that he can create in defense.
A game that only needs to be unbridled because it is capable of superb passes, but he is not able to slow down after a screen without forcing anything and then asking for another screen to start a new play.
Another thing you can see in his games is that the defense knows the player’s weakness. And many times, he will have trouble finishing with his left hand. A lack of touch that could be felt but that emerges in the u18 championship.
Let’s take a look at his stats this season and how it goes this year with a strong Saint-Quentin team.
With a 48% AST rate, Nolan Traore is the second-best player in the whole league in this category (TJ Shorts is the first with 58% AST).
88th percentile on the AST/TO ratio along with Nando De Colo and Kamardine.
Nolan Traore is also second on the Touches with 723 just behind TJ Shorts too, with a 65% PASS.
Nolan doesn't seem to be struggling with his handle but he lacks aggression, especially at finding his spots. This echoes his FIBA stint this summer, where he looked comfortable finding his teammates, but went into a kind of tunnel vision when trying to find his shooting spots.
Traore is a theoretical player who sometimes thinks too much, and can't find the synergy between creating assists (or potential assists) and using scoring as gravity.
This was one of Frank's problems, as he had the reputation of being a good passer and even a “passing first guard,” but this is a dying NBA archetype.
Saint Quentin loves this Spain PNR action with at least 2 screens near the ball handler. Most of Traore’s assists come from High PnR to use his burst in the open floor and his ability to find teammates in movement. There is not so much drive and kick and self-created assist as St Quentin is not the fastest team in Half Court offense.
If we want to stay on the positive side, Nolan seems much more at ease navigating the court, especially in the intermediate zone (midrange), where he can re-accelerate like waiting for a late screen or trying to find the shooters. If Traoré manages to vary his runs and rhythm changes after taking screens, he'll continue to get to the rim with ease and attract defenders with his paint touches.
Even more so when you see that Nolan Traoré touches the ball a lot. Without real shooting efficiency, and worse, without real willingness to shoot, the player couldn't be effective in the NBA.
When it comes to shooting, that’s the real deal, and he's in the seventh worst centile on TS%+ at -26%. Also, his EFG is 37%, the seventh percentile in the whole league.
The problem with Traore isn't necessarily his shooting form, which I think is pretty good, but rather his shot selection.
Sometimes, I get the impression I'm watching a textbook player who tells himself he has to score, so he takes a shot at the first opportunity, which often results in a bad shot.
It's often said that defending well means conceding the shots you want to concede, and that's what works with Traore. He doesn't necessarily try to shoot (in his first intention) but to set up his teammates, to his credit, but he takes the shots the defense lets him take, and that's the fundamental problem with this prospect.
His decision-making regarding shot selection may lack maturity, so either he takes the shots because they're left to him or he takes them without any real thought behind them.
And that ties in with the lack of aggressiveness I mentioned at the start, Traoré is still finding it hard to be a real playmaker these days. That's to say, he has to combine scoring with passing. If his gravity as a scorer is negative, he won't be able to create shifts in the defense and will therefore become a negative player on the court.
This is also one of Traore's other problems: as he often touches the ball, and is very often on top of the key, it's hard to imagine him off the ball with sequences on the wings in the NBA.
Even when he started with the French national team, he had the same role.
We've seen him excel at finding teammates in transition and, above all, be very good at axial pick-and-roll with a big pivot like Brice Dessert, but it's hard to see him evolving as a second initiator.
This is also one of St Quentin's problems: the Enzo Goudou-Sinha-Jerome Robinson duo works wonderfully on the pitch and sometimes seems more effective than Robinson's duo with Traore.
Are we expecting too much from an 18-year-old who is the starting leader of a team playing in two different competitions?
Perhaps yes.
Are we afraid that France will once again fail to develop a player to the NBA level ? Maybe we are.
The net rating of -19.9, the second worst of his team, can be quite frightening, so the 31% USG Rate for a low total of 0.71 PPP is quite concerning.
On defense, he's pretty good in rotations, but it's more in duels where he seems outmatched, a lack of rigor and consistency that he'll have to erase in the NBA, where many offenses look for the weakest link in each team to exploit.
His lack of skill and regularity could be due to fatigue. Since this summer and the ANGT, he hasn't stopped: national championship, national cup, European championship, selections with the French team...
I think that as long as Nolan can't combine scoring and passing, he'll remain an inefficient player at a high level.
Nevertheless, he's still a great transition player thanks to his ball-in-hand speed and vision.
His touch near the rim is good, but he may lack the verticality to finish on bigger players.
Nolan Traoré made a name for himself last year with some convincing playoff performances with Saint Quentin.
A player who seemed cheeky and carefree, who arrived with the ardor of youth.
But since this summer, we don't necessarily seem to see a leader with the young French team (although it was supposed to be him) and we can see him quite often annoyed this season.
Let's see how St Quentin's season shapes up this year, with some big ups and downs.
Maybe the defenses have adapted, and probably they have, so the surprise effect doesn't work as well, and a lack of consistency in a young player is still quite common (Risacher, #1 also had a tough few months, and despite that, he stayed high in the mocks all the time).
The European professional aspect is also much more taken into account by European scouts, as we saw with Tidjane Salaun who was selected high despite a still rather raw prospect, but who managed to rack up a good number of minutes in a competitive Cholet team.
But in the last few games, Nolan seems to find his basketball again.
Saint-Quentin has just lost to Galatasaray in a decisive Champions League play-in match.
His speed with the ball never left him, but the French prospect was very impressive in the space the defense left him and in his management of offensive transitions.
This effectively concludes that Traoré is still learning basketball on the half-court but remains a big threat when it comes to transitions or unplanned situations. Traore is an agent of chaos.
The season in Europe is a long one, and it's not impossible to see a different side to Nolan Traoré after his recent good performances, especially in high-stakes games.
We'll be watching Nolan's attitude too when we get to the Betclic Elite playoffs, to see if he's (still) capable of raising his game in big games, an important attribute for NBA scouts.
But the problem is, in my opinion, that if he's the one chosen out of the lottery at the next draft, the team that chooses him will not commit to the prospect.
And that means he'll have to earn his possessions and prove he deserves to have the ball in hand (a situation we've never seen him play in).
With the trend towards big European players in the NBA, the French league and its prospects are on a roll.
But since the drafting of Doncic and Hayes over the last 5 years, it has been very rare to see point guards selected in the lottery.
This is due to the difference in play between Europe and the USA, which is even more extreme when it comes to point guards/initiators.
As Traore is a heliocentric player, his high volume of usage and touches per possession make him a player who, for the time being, evolves exclusively on ball. While some progress has been made, notably in playmaking and versatility on drives, there is still a long way to go on the offensive front.
Whether through film or data analysis, Traoré's season has been very mixed, if not disappointing.
Even if the percentages won't be good at the end of the season, we're expecting an improvement in decision-making on half-court, especially when it comes to shot selection.
In terms of attitude too, I'd like to see him rise to the occasion a little more often and take responsibility when he needs to, as he did last season when he caused a stir when he was barely of legal age.
We wish him a Tony Parker destiny, but every prospect is different and each one builds his destiny.
He's still pretty young and I would have like to see him try his hand at college basketball, even if it means getting to the NBA later on.